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Bonds

Australia 10Y Yield Holds at 5-Week Top

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held around 5.1%, sitting at a five-week high as markets ramped up the odds of an imminent rate hike. The stronger outlook for tighter policy came after a hotter-than-expected July inflation report and household spending data, which showed a 1.1% jump in July, pointing to continued strength in domestic demand despite elevated borrowing costs. The RBA has already hiked rates three times this year and policymakers have warned they could tighten further. The stronger economic figures prompted several major banks to revise their RBA forecasts, with NAB expecting the cash rate to rise to 4.6% next month, while CBA and ANZ forecast a November move but acknowledge the possibility of earlier tightening. Markets are pricing roughly a 50% chance of a rate increase at the RBA’s September meeting, up sharply from 17% previously, while a November hike is fully priced in. Focus now turns to Q2 GDP and employment data for further clues on the policy outlook.

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