Australian Dollar collapses below 0.6050 as markets brace for RBA rate cuts

• AUD/USD tumbles toward the 0.6050 region during Friday’s American session, marking a sharp intraday plunge.
• Trump’s aggressive tariffs spark fears of slower global growth and inflation; Fed Chair Powell warns of broader economic impact.
• Technical indicators flash strong bearish momentum; resistance seen near 0.6200 while the pair tests multi-year lows.
  

The AUD/USD pair crumbled below key psychological support during Friday’s American session, sliding toward the 0.6050 region and marking its lowest level in five years. The steep drop comes in the wake of a stronger-than-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which added to a broader surge in the Greenback. However, the dominant catalyst behind the Aussie’s collapse stems from a new wave of US tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, sparking global growth concerns and triggering speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may respond with a series of aggressive rate cuts this year. From a technical standpoint, the pair is flashing intense bearish momentum, with the RSI now well into oversold territory and the MACD printing a fresh red bar.

Daily digest market movers: Trump tariffs and RBA bets crush Aussie

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) faced a brutal sell-off, dropping below the 0.6050 zone as investors rapidly repriced RBA rate expectations in response to Trump’s sweeping new tariff package.
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell, speaking at a business journalism event, acknowledged that the scale of the tariff campaign may have a more persistent effect on inflation and growth than initially projected.
• Powell stressed the Fed’s flexibility, noting that while inflation is cooling gradually, the economic impact of tariffs remains highly uncertain, prompting a wait-and-see stance.
• Despite March’s robust US jobs report, with payrolls beating forecasts and the unemployment rate ticking up slightly, Powell highlighted deteriorating business sentiment tied to trade policy.
• Markets now expect the RBA to potentially deliver back-to-back rate cuts in the next few meetings, with some banks even forecasting a 50 bps move in May.
• China’s retaliatory stance further compounds the pressure on the Aussie, as Australia’s export-driven economy remains deeply tied to Chinese demand.
• The US Dollar advanced broadly following the NFP print and Powell’s comments, strengthening further against high-beta currencies like the AUD.
  

Technical analysis

Friday’s carnage leaves the AUD/USD pair deep in bearish territory, with price action collapsing near the lower end of its daily range and breaching significant multi-year support zones. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to print new red bars, reinforcing downside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to the 27 region, confirming extreme oversold conditions.

Although the Stochastic oscillator appears neutral, the persistent sell-off is further validated by the Bear/Bull Power indicator flashing red and a sharp divergence across moving averages. All short and long-term moving averages—the 10-day EMA, 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages—continue to point downward, underlining the prevailing downtrend.

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