S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that speculative positioning in the Australian Dollar is the largest long since 2013, built despite deteriorating domestic data and lower yields. He argues AUD could rally on a credible cease-fire extension but warns much good news is already priced, suggesting better relative value in AUD/NZD and potential NZD/USD shorts.
Australian Dollar positioning looks stretched
“The currency that is most striking in the CFTC chart, is the AUD.”
“The market built up the biggest long AUD position since 2013, growing it in recent weeks despite a wobble at the start of April.”
“5y yields have fallen by 30bp in recent weeks as the economic outlook has deteriorated and end-2026 rate-pricing has dropped by 20bp this month.”
“If a credible cease-fire extension is agreed, AUD seems bound to rally, but there is a lot of good news hard-wired rather than baked into the current AUD/USD price.”
“AUD/NZD would be more attractive, if it weren’t for the fact that this pair is up 13% in the last year.”
Profit
Everyone's racing to cut costs. We're racing to create profit.
Start Selling through Service
