Global Markets
S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
NASDAQ 100 — Tech Growth Index
Dow Jones — Industrial Average
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
NASDAQ 100 — Tech Growth Index
Dow Jones — Industrial Average
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
AED • EUR • GBP • USD IBANs   |   CROSS BORDER FX   |   LOCAL CURRENCIES   |   GLOBAL COVERAGE
AudTechnical AnalysisUSD

Australian Dollar moves sideways as US Dollar gains despite US-EU tensions

  • Australian Dollar edges lower after two days of gains.
  • Australia’s Westpac Leading Economic Index rose 0.1% MoM in December 2025 after being flat previously.
  • The US Dollar recovers daily losses despite escalating US–Greenland uncertainty.

The Australian Dollar struggles against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday despite rising United States (US)–Greenland concerns.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index for Australia rose 0.1% month-on-month (MoM) in December 2025, after remaining unchanged in the prior month. At the same time, the six-month annualized growth rate increased to 0.42% from 0.20% in November, indicating that the economic recovery through 2025 is extending into early 2026.

The AUD also finds support as emerging upward price pressures strengthen expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the RBA to remain cautious, highlighting that inflation has stayed above the Bank’s 2%–3% target band for a prolonged period, even though headline CPI eased more quickly than anticipated in November.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, announced on Tuesday that it would leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. It is essential to note that any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the Australian Dollar, as both countries are close trading partners.

US Dollar weakens as US–Greenland concerns aggravate

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is recovering its daily losses and trading around 98.60 at the time of writing.
  • US President Donald Trump said there is “no going back” on his ambitions regarding Greenland, alongside earlier threats to impose new 10% tariffs on eight European Union (EU) countries, fueling concerns over slower economic growth.
  • The European Parliament plans to suspend approval of the US trade deal agreed in July, with the decision set to be announced on Wednesday in Strasbourg, France, signaling an escalation in US–Europe tensions.
  • US labor market data has pushed back expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts until June. Fed officials have signaled little urgency to ease policy further until there is clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target. Morgan Stanley analysts revised their 2026 outlook, now forecasting one rate cut in June followed by another in September, compared with their previous expectation of cuts in January and April.
  • Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday that China’s Industrial Production rose 5.2% year-over-year YoY in December, accelerating from 4.8% in November, supported by resilient export-driven manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, Retail Sales rose 0.9% YoY, undershooting forecasts of 1.2% and November’s 1.3%.
  • China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 1.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, accelerating from 1.1% in Q3 and exceeding the market consensus of 1.0%. On an annual basis, GDP grew 4.5% in Q4, easing from 4.8% in the previous quarter but coming in above expectations of a 4.4% reading.
  • Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge, released on Monday, rose to 3.5% year-over-year (YoY) in December, up from 3.2% previously. On a monthly basis, inflation surged 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025, the fastest pace since December 2023 and a sharp acceleration from 0.3% in the prior two months.
  • RBA policymakers acknowledged that inflation has eased significantly from its 2022 peak, though recent data suggests renewed upward momentum. Headline CPI slowed to 3.4% YoY in November, the lowest reading since August, but remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Meanwhile, trimmed mean CPI edged down to 3.2% from October’s eight-month high of 3.3%.
  • The RBA assessed that inflation risks have modestly tilted to the upside, while downside risks, particularly from global conditions, have diminished. Board members expect only one additional rate cut this year, with underlying inflation projected to remain above 3% in the near term before easing to around 2.6% by 2027.

Australian Dollar rises to near 0.6750 near 15-month highs

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6740 on Wednesday. Daily chart analysis indicates that the pair is rising above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), pointing to a bullish bias for the short term. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 62.90, is reinforcing underlying upside momentum.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could target the 15-month high of 0.6766. The immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6712. A daily close below the short-term average may bring the 50-day EMA at 0.6651 into focus as initial support. Deeper losses could then extend toward 0.6414, the lowest level since June 2025.

AUD/USD: Daily Chart

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-0.00%-0.03%-0.03%0.03%0.00%-0.09%0.06%
EUR0.00%-0.03%-0.02%0.02%0.00%-0.09%0.06%
GBP0.03%0.03%0.00%0.05%0.01%-0.07%0.08%
JPY0.03%0.02%0.00%0.03%0.02%-0.09%0.07%
CAD-0.03%-0.02%-0.05%-0.03%-0.01%-0.12%0.04%
AUD-0.01%-0.01%-0.01%-0.02%0.01%-0.10%0.05%
NZD0.09%0.09%0.07%0.09%0.12%0.10%0.15%
CHF-0.06%-0.06%-0.08%-0.07%-0.04%-0.05%-0.15%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Register a Revolut Business Account
```

Market Analysis & Disclaimer

The market information, analysis, commentary, forecasts and opinions contained in this publication are provided by Octalas Group Ltd on behalf of Today Markets and Currency Hedger using information and data obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, Octalas Group Ltd, Today Markets and Currency Hedger do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information presented and accept no responsibility for any loss or damage arising from reliance upon information contained herein, to the extent permitted by applicable law.

Market forecasts, expectations and opinions are based on analysis of available information and a number of assumptions regarding economic, financial, political and market conditions. Such assumptions may prove to be incorrect, and actual market developments may differ materially from those described or anticipated.

Nothing contained in this publication constitutes investment advice, financial advice, a personal recommendation, an offer, solicitation or invitation to buy, sell or otherwise transact in any financial instrument or investment product. The information is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, experience or particular circumstances of any individual reader.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Financial markets, including foreign exchange, commodities, equities, derivatives and other financial instruments, involve risk and prices can move rapidly. Readers should conduct their own independent research and, where appropriate, obtain advice from an appropriately authorised financial professional before making any investment or trading decision.

Where this publication refers to Today Markets, it represents market news, research, analysis and commentary published for informational purposes. Where Currency Hedger is referenced, it represents commentary concerning foreign exchange, currency exposure, international payments and hedging-related topics. References to particular financial instruments, markets, companies, currencies or commodities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to transact in them.

Octalas Group Ltd, Today Markets and Currency Hedger may have commercial interests or relationships with businesses, financial-service providers, technology providers or other market participants mentioned in their publications. Where relevant, such relationships or interests may create potential conflicts of interest. Appropriate measures are intended to be taken to ensure that published analysis and commentary are presented objectively and that commercial considerations do not determine the substance of market analysis.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the author or contributors at the time of publication and may change without notice as market conditions develop. Readers should not assume that any information contained herein has been updated following publication.

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button