• The US Dollar holds steady as global trade negotiations remain in focus.
• The PBoC continues Gold purchases, signaling long-term interest.
• Chinese Copper production expands, reducing reliance on imports.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure as global trade uncertainties persist, particularly surrounding the US-China trade talks. While there has been a slight rebound in copper production from China, trade deals and economic policies continue to impact sentiment in the market, with limited positive moves for the Aussie.

Daily digest market movers: Aussie steady ahead of trade talks

• The US Dollar (USD) holds steady as the market reacts to trade deal uncertainties and key upcoming data.
• Copper production in China continues to expand, potentially reducing future copper imports.
• Gold purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have slowed, although purchases remain robust.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near 100.30, showing signs of resistance despite trade deal headlines.
• Trade talks between the US and China are scheduled for the weekend, raising hopes but also cautious expectations.
• Despite a positive market reaction to the potential US-UK trade deal, the UK’s 10% tariff remains in place.
• China’s crude oil imports increased, signaling continued demand despite global uncertainties.
• Chile’s largest copper producer has raised its output, somewhat easing fears of a global shortage.
• The PBoC’s Gold purchases rose by 70 thousand ounces, continuing their long-term strategy.
• US Federal Reserve officials remain cautious, with no immediate interest rate cuts expected despite global trade tensions.
• China’s economic outlook weighs heavily on commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian Dollar.
• While China is expanding its domestic copper production, it could still face challenges from ongoing global supply issues.
• Oil markets are tightening, with concerns about future import volumes, particularly from Iran.

Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar is currently trading around 0.6400, up 0.30% on the day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.85 suggests a neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a sell signal. Short-term moving averages, including the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6401, suggest a bullish outlook, supported by the 100-day SMA at 0.6289 and the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6419. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6460 indicates a bearish trend. Key support levels are at 0.6419, 0.6413, and 0.6401, with resistance at 0.6425, 0.6431, and 0.6460.

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