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The Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 25bps to 14.0% in its July 2026 decision, to extend its cutting cycle since the rate was at a record high of 21% up to June of last year. The central bank noted that monetary conditions remained moderately tight despite the elevated level of real rates. The economy grew only at a moderate pace so far in 2026 as robust consumer demand was offset by declining capacity in key sectors, partially due to fuel shortages as Ukrainian forces struck major refineries across Russia. Consequently, the latest data showed the first annual contraction in the GDP in three years in Q1. Meanwhile, the CBR noted that underlying inflation was steady at levels close to the 4% mark. The surge in fuel costs were deemed temporary and one-off by the CBR, although policymakers remained attentive to growing inflation expectations due to the growing budget deficit by the government.
