25.06.2026 – PCE inflation data (May):

• PCE inflation m/m: 0.4% (Expected: 0.5%; Previous: 0.3%)
• PCE inflation y/y: 4.1% (Expected: 4.1%; Previous: 3.8%)
• PCE inflation m/m – core: 0.3% (Expected: 0.3%; Previous: 0.3%)
• PCE inflation y/y – core: 3.4% (Expected: 3.4%; Previous: 3.3%)

25.06.2026 – US spending and earnings (May):

• Personal earnings m/m: 0.7% (Expected: 0.4%; Previous: 0.6%)
• Personal spending m/m: 0.7% (Expected: 0.6%; Previous: 0.4%)
• Consumer Spending Q1: 0,5% (Expected: 1,4%; Previous: 1,9%)

PCE inflation showed further increases, which was expected by the market in the context of the consequences of the war in Iran spreading through the economy. Core PCE inflation shows a clear difference between the core and headline figures, with core inflation clearly stabilizing. This indicates that inflation is concentrated in food and fuel products, which may suggest a transitory nature. This reading is significant, as it is PCE inflation, not CPI, that is the primary reading analyzed by the Fed.

Both earnings and spending in the US grew in a linear relationship with each other, both by 0.7%. At the same time, earnings grew more above expectations than spending. What can be worrying is that consumer spending is noticably below expectations and lower than personal spending. Combined data published before opening of US market, pushes Euro slighlty higher. Market sees slightly less hawkish path for FED, despite strong readings from GDP and jobless claims, lower durable orders and consumer spending raises question about sustainbility of the growth momentum of US economy.

EURUSD (M1)

Source: xStation5

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