United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights that GBP/USD continues to lack clear momentum, with intraday action expected between 1.3175 and 1.3225. The bank maintains a negative 1–3 week view, seeing scope for a drop toward 1.3110 while strong resistance at 1.3245 caps upside. Over the 1–3 month horizon, the pair is still seen broadly range-bound.

Range trade persists with downside risk

“24-HOUR VIEW: Following last Thursday’s price action, we indicated on Friday that “there has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum, and the fluctuations appear to be part of a range-trading phase.” We expected GBP to “trade between 1.3160 and 1.3220.” GBP subsequently traded within a range of 1.3182/1.3232 before settling at 1.3211 (+0.16%). Momentum indicators are still mostly flat, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.3175 and 1.3225.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a negative GBP view since the middle of the month. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (25 Jun, spot at 1.3165), we indicated that “there is a chance for GBP to drop to 1.3110.” Although GBP has since recovered, the weakness has not stabilised yet, and we will maintain our view as long as 1.3245 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.”

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