Coal Retreats to Pre-War Levels

Thermal coal futures fell below $130 per ton, returning to levels last seen before the Middle East conflict erupted as continued peace talks between the US and Iran raised hopes for a lasting resolution and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are closely watching the latest developments in negotiations between Washington and Tehran in Qatar following a recent flare-up in hostilities around the key shipping route. Oil and natural gas prices have also retreated to pre-war levels, with analysts forecasting a global supply surplus as Middle Eastern production rebounds, reducing the need for fuel switching. Meanwhile, China’s latest five-year plan reaffirmed its “all-of-the-above” energy strategy by expanding both coal-fired power generation and renewable energy. China remains the world’s largest investor in clean energy while continuing to lead global coal expansion, accounting for 78% of new coal power capacity added worldwide in 2025.

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