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July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) on Monday closed down -135 (-3.93%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK26) closed down -99 (-3.93%).
Cocoa prices fell sharply on Monday amid robust supplies and slack demand. Monday’s cumulative data from the Ivory Coast showed that farmers shipped 1.51 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through April 19, 2026), +0.7% from the same period a year ago.
Signs of weak chocolate demand are also negative for cocoa prices after Circana on April 14 reported that chocolate candy sales in North America in the 13 weeks ending March 22 fell -1.3% from the same period a year ago. Also, Bloomberg Intelligence said that chocolate candy sales during this past Easter holiday, a prime seasonal time for chocolate consumption, fell about 5% from last year.
Abundant current cocoa supplies are bearish for prices as ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 20-month high of 2,632,357 bags last Monday.
Weak global cocoa demand is bearish for prices. The National Confectioners Association reported last Thursday that North American Q1 cocoa grindings fell -3.8% y/y to 106,087 MT. Also, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q1 European cocoa grindings fell -7.8% y/y to 325,895 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -6% y/y and the lowest for a Q1 in 17 years. Conversely, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q1 Asian cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose +5.2% y/y to 223,503 MT, stronger than expectations of a decline of -6.7% y/y.
Concerns that a prolonged US-Iran war will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and disrupt global cocoa supplies are supportive for prices. The closure of the strait supports cocoa prices by reducing fertilizer supplies, boosting global shipping rates, insurance costs, and fuel prices, thereby raising cocoa importers’ costs.
Smaller cocoa supplies from Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, are supportive for prices. Last Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Nigerian Feb cocoa exports fell -4.6% y/y to 40,110 MT. Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year.
Recent rainfall in West Africa has been insufficient to ease drought concerns in the Ivory Coast and Ghana. According to the African Flood and Drought Monitor, as of March 29, drought conditions blanket more than half of the Ivory Coast and about two-thirds of Ghana.
Last month, Ghana cut the official price it pays its cocoa farmers by nearly 30% for supplies for the 2025/26 growing season, and the Ivory Coast also said it would cut cocoa farmer pay by 57% that would kick in for the mid-crop harvest that started this month. The Ivory Coast and Ghana produce more than half of the world’s cocoa.
On the bullish side, the Ivory Coast said its cocoa production in 2025/26 would fall -10.8% y/y to 1.65 MMT from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25. On February 10, Rabobank cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.
As a bearish factor, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) on March 2 raised its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 75,000 MT from 49,000 MT in November, which was the first surplus in four years. ICCO estimated that global cocoa production in 2024/25 climbed by +8.4% y/y to 4.7 MMT. Looking ahead, StoneX on January 29 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in the 2025/26 season and a 267,000 MT surplus for 2026/27.
