Currency Talk – EUR/GBP, GBP/AUD and USD/JPY

The Overbalance analysis aims to identify three financial instruments, analysed mainly on a daily/four-hourly (D1/H4) interval. The analysis uses only the Overbalance methodology, which allows us to determine where the trend may continue or where it may change.
Today’s analysis covers three instruments, assessed solely in terms of the 1:1 correction structure.

Since November last year, the EURGBP currency pair has been moving in a downward trend, but in recent days there have been signs of a potential trend reversal according to the Overbalance methodology. The price negated the 1:1 downward pattern at 0.8691 and then tested it from the other side, confirming the change in polarity. In addition, a local 1:1 upward geometry has formed, with its lower limit also falling in the 0.8691 area. As long as the price remains above the lower limit of the 1:1 pattern, the baseline scenario remains an extension of the upward movement. A return below this geometry will open the way for declines towards the recent lows at 0.8612.

EURGBP – H4 interval. Source: xStation5

GBPAUD quotes have been in a downward trend since November last year. The first correction in this movement was less than 300 pips and remains the largest correction in the entire impulse so far — subsequent upward movements were significantly shallower. In the event of an upward correction, the key resistance resulting from the 1:1 geometry remains at 1.9473, where the upper limit of the 1:1 pattern is located. As long as the price remains below this geometry, the dominant scenario remains a continuation of the downward trend.

GBPAUD – H4 interval. Source: xStation5

Since April 2021, USDJPY quotes have been moving in a long-term upward trend. At the end of January, there was a rebound from the lower limit of the 1:1 geometry at 152.93, but buyers failed to maintain their advantage, which led to another pullback. The price negated the local 1:1 pattern at 156.26, which triggered stronger supply pressure. Currently, we are seeing a retest of the lower limit of the larger 1:1 geometry. If there is a clear demand reaction in this area, it will be possible to resume the upward movement. On the other hand, a permanent negation of the 152.93 level will open the way for a major change in the balance of power, which would be technically confirmed after breaking through 151.10.

USDJPY – H4 interval. Source: xStation5

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