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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range. For the next 1–3 weeks, the Euro’s upside hurdle has risen, requiring a close above 1.1580 to target 1.1600 and beyond, while strong support has shifted up to 1.1515.
Euro consolidates below 1.1580 barrier
“24-HOUR VIEW: Having surged to a high of 1.1580 last Friday, EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1539 and 1.1569 yesterday. EUR closed slightly lower by 0.14% at 1.1542. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1530 and 1.1560.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following is from our latest update from last Friday: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase.” EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1580 before closing at 1.1558. There has been no significant increase in upward momentum, and the hurdle for further gains has risen, with EUR needing to close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected. The ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.1515 instead of 1.1495.”
