United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports USD/JPY surged to 162.42 before closing at 162.08, leaving the pair overbought. Intraday, the bank expects consolidation between 161.50 and 162.45. For the next 1–3 weeks, downward momentum has faded and the outlook is mixed, with trading likely confined between major levels at 160.60 and 163.00.

Overbought Dollar consolidating in range

“24-HOUR VIEW: Following USD’s price action last Friday, we indicated yesterday that USD “has likely entered a range-trading phase, and it is likely to trade between 161.00 and 161.90.” We were incorrect, as USD soared to a high of 162.42 before pulling back to close at 162.08 (+0.44%). The rapid rise appears excessive, and the pullback from overbought conditions suggests limited further upside for USD. Today, USD could trade in a range between 161.50 and 162.45.”

“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After USD plunged last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday (03 Jul, spot at 161.40) that “while the sharp decline suggests further downside risk, USD must close below 160.60 before a move to 160.00 can be expected.” We added, “the likelihood of USD closing below 160.60 will remain intact as long as 162.45 (‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.” Yesterday, USD soared to a high of 162.42. While our ‘strong resistance’ has not been clearly breached, downward momentum has largely faded with the strong rise. From here, the outlook is mixed, and USD could trade between the two major levels of 160.60 and 163.00.”

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