Bitcoin briefly traded above $67,000 late Monday before slipping back under $66,000 in a move that is indicative of how cautiously crypto is treating the Iran peace deal that has rallied other markets.

The token changed hands at $65,845 on Tuesday, up 0.3% over 24 hours and 4.8% on the week, per CoinDesk data. It touched a 24-hour high of $67,217 before fading. Ether held up better, rising 2.8% on the day to $1,764 and 5.8% on the week. Solana gained 3.2% to $73, XRP added 3.2% to $1.22 and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led the majors again, up 6.3% to $69.

The macro backdrop turned sharply friendlier on Monday. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed an electronic copy of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, and Trump said the Strait of Hormuz, already partially open, will fully reopen on Friday.

Brent crude slipped below $83 a barrel after its biggest drop in more than two weeks. The S&P 500 added 1.7% on Monday and the Nasdaq 100 rose 3.1%.

Yet Bitcoin has not moved like an asset pricing in relief.

“Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely budged,” said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis, said in an email. He called it “a relief move that the market hasn’t fully bought yet rather than clear risk-on redeployment into Bitcoin.”

The hesitation has a logic. This is the third truce attempt, and bitcoin fully round-tripped the relief rallies after both the April ceasefire and the June 9 strikes collapsed. As such, Trump also said on Monday that the deal may be called off if Iran does not agree to shut down its nuclear program.

Traders appear to be waiting on the deal’s June 19 signing in Switzerland before pricing anything as durable, Xue said.

The demand picture explains the profit-taking from ovenight. US spot bitcoin ETFs just came off four straight weeks of outflows totaling about $5.4 billion, including a record week near $3.4 billion, and that streak only just paused. The marginal institutional buyer has not clearly returned. The one constructive signal is steady movement of coins off exchanges into cold storage, which tightens available supply if demand does come back.

Not everyone reads it as cautiously, however.

“It’s a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto,” said Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton, said in an email. “With the SpaceX IPO behind us, an event that appears to have drained some retail liquidity out of the crypto market, it will be interesting to see if the improving macro environment brings retail back.”

Perkins added that passage of the CLARITY Act – whose primary goal is to define whether digital assets are securities or commodities – which prediction markets currently rate a coin flip, would further accelerate institutional participation.

The near-term test is the central bank calendar. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 1%, its highest since 1995, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve delivers its verdict on Wednesday.

For Bitcoin, trading like a high-beta risk asset, the Fed decision and the Friday signing are the two events that decide whether this bounce holds or round-trips like the last two.

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