Euro recovers early losses amid waning hopes of peace in Iran, higher Crude prices

• EUR/USD picks up to the 1.1775 area but remains within previous ranges below 1.1800.
• The Euro faltered at Monday’s opening after Trump dismissed Iran’s peace plan.
• The recent jump in Oil prices is likely to keep Euro bulls in check.

The Euro (EUR) is trading moderately higher against the Dollar (USD), yet moving within previous ranges on Monday. The pair has returned to the upper side of the 1.1700s range, and is trading at 1.1775 at the time of writing after a negative opening, following US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace plan.

Trump posted on social media that Tehran’s latest peace proposal was “totally unacceptable”, crushing market hopes of a swift end to the war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jumped after the news, with the barrel of Brent returning above $100, which puts the Eurozone’s Crude-importing economies under pressure and undermines the Euro’s upside attempts.

On the macroeconomic front, US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations on Friday, showing a 115K increase, almost twice the 62K expected. These figures strengthen the case for Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks and ease pressure on the bank to cut interest rates, which provides support to the Greenback.

The economic calendar is thin in the US and Europe on Monday. Later this week, US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) data, due on Tuesday, and US Retail Sales on Thursday, together with Fed speakers throughout the week, will provide the fundamental guidance for the USD. In Europe, Germany’s final consumer inflation data on Tuesday, but above all, Wednesday’s Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde’s speech, will be the highlights of the week.

Technical Analysis: Bulls to be tested at 1.1800

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EUR/USD shows a modest bullish bias with momentum readings backing this constructive tone. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is near 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, hinting that buyers retain control.

Bulls, however, are likely to meet significant resistance at the area between 1.1790 and 1.1800 (around April 20, May 6, 8 highs), which, so far, is closing the path to April’s high, in the 1.1850 area. Further up, February’s top, at the 1.1930 area, would come into focus.

On the downside, session lows at the 1.1750 area and Friday’s lows, near 1.1725, are likely to provide some support to a potential bearish reversal, although the key support is at the area between 1.1645 and 1.1675, which contained downside attempts in April.

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