Chief Powell’s press conference takeaways
Data available suggests the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting.
Prior to shutdown, data showed the economy may be on a firmer trajectory.
Shutdown will weigh on economic activity while it persists and should reverse when it ends.
Labour demand has clearly softened.
Available evidence suggests layoffs and hiring remain low.
Job availability and hiring difficulty continue to decline.
Inflation remains somewhat elevated relative to the goal.
Estimate total PCE and core PCE rose 2.8%.
Disinflation in services continues.
Most measures of long-term inflation expectations are consistent with the goal.
Higher tariffs are pushing up some goods prices.
Reasonable base case is that tariff effects on inflation will be short-lived.
Risk of more persistent inflation needs to be managed.
Obligation is to ensure it does not become an ongoing problem.
Risks to inflation are to the upside; to employment, they are to the downside. Challenging.
We must take a balanced approach.
Balance of risks has shifted.
Well-positioned to respond in a timely way to economic developments.
We face two-sided risks.
Different views about how to proceed in December.
Strongly differing views at the meeting about how to proceed.
Another cut in December is far from assured.
December cut is not for sure, far from it.
