Market awaits Nvidia’s results and Jackson Hole

We are facing the publication of perhaps the most anticipated quarterly results of the season. On Wednesday, Nvidia will publish its Q2 report. It will be a key test for the durability of the entire bull market driven by the development of artificial intelligence. Investors will be looking not just at the financial results for the last three months, but primarily at forecasts regarding further demand for next-generation chips. Any deviation from the analysts’ lofty expectations will certainly trigger strong volatility on the main indices, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The report will be released after the US market closes. A few hours earlier, the July PCE inflation from the United States will be published. This reading is significantly delayed relative to the CPI measure, but historically preferred by FOMC policymakers. The publication naturally takes on particular importance in the face of the recent change in valuations. After the recent failed intervention by Scott Bessent, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in the autumn has risen. A September hike is priced in at approx. 40%. An October one at slightly over 60%. Even more important for valuations should be the symposium in Jackson Hole, which will last from Thursday to Saturday. On Friday around 11:00 AM UK time, Chairman Warsh will take the podium. It seems that a lack of forward guidance is not an option. Markets are looking for clarity, and its absence may add to the already significant pressure on the US dollar. The Fed Chair has announced that he will treat Jackson Hole as a sort of blank slate. The question is how he intends to write on it. Today is relatively quiet. At the centre of our attention will be the July retail sales from Poland (8:30 AM). After the recent publication of wage data, concerns have grown about the appearance of so-called second-round effects – that is, the sustaining of inflation at elevated levels by demand-side factors (related to consumption). However, we expect a decline in the indicator relative to the impressive reading from June (+6.2% y/y).

🌏 Key macroeconomic publications

Friday

Eurozone August PMI indices for the Eurozone exceeded expectations.

• The index for the services sector remained at the same level as in July (51.7).
• The index for the manufacturing sector accelerated to 52.8, the highest level in 51 months.
• The composite index rose to 52.1, the highest level in 9 months.

The rise in the composite index is mainly a matter of stronger manufacturing (51-month high).

• Germany plays a significant role here (the index for manufacturing reached 54.1, which means the strongest pace of growth in years).
• German manufacturing was helped by growing demand for technological equipment related to artificial intelligence and higher spending on defence.
• The rest of the Eurozone is also doing quite well. There is visible growth in employment and dynamic acceleration in the services sector, based on rising spending in the tourism sector.
• An infamous exception is France. Economic activity fell again. Employment was shrinking, and the sentiment of entrepreneurs and forecasts for the future deteriorated.

United Kingdom Data for the UK also surprised to the upside, especially regarding the services sector (52.8, 6-month high). This growth was driven by better weather, investments in technology, and growing client confidence in the domestic market.

• The composite index rose to 52.5 points (from 52.2 in July), which suggests solid economic growth in the third quarter at around 0.3%.
• The manufacturing PMI fell as expected to 51.5 points (the lowest in five months). This is mainly due to the fact that companies stopped aggressively building inventories (which was previously done out of fear of the consequences of the war in the Middle East).
• Operating costs rose the fastest in four months due to higher fuel, transport, and raw material prices, as well as rising labour costs.
• Employment in the services sector has been falling for 23 consecutive months – this is the longest such series since 1996. Companies are dealing with costs by simply not hiring new people to replace those who leave.

USA

The PMI data for the United States was perhaps the most surprising of all. Business activity accelerated rapidly in August, and the composite index reached its highest level in 52 months (56). This suggests economic growth in Q3 at a pace close to 3.0% in annualised terms.

• The main driver was services – the index for the sector jumped to 56.8 points (20-month high).
• The manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 points (5-month low), and the sub-index of industrial production recorded the weakest result in 13 months. This slowdown, as in the case of the UK, is a result of slower accumulation of safety stocks and delivery delays.
• The labour market rebounded clearly – employment grew the fastest since the beginning of 2025. Employers are more willing to increase employment due to growing confidence in the economy and a large portfolio of unfilled orders.
• Price pressure has eased – the rate of growth of final prices slowed to the lowest level since November. However, companies’ operating costs remain elevated due to energy prices, tariffs, and bottlenecks in supply chains.

📆 Macroeconomic calendar

Tuesday

• Germany: GDP in Q2 (revision)Time: 7:00 AMInitial reading: 0.9% y/y
• Time: 7:00 AM
• Initial reading: 0.9% y/y
• Germany: IFO business climate in AugustTime: 9:00 AMPrevious: 86.6Consensus: 87.2
• Time: 9:00 AM
• Previous: 86.6
• Consensus: 87.2

🗂️ Earnings publications

• Gorilla Technology ($GRRR.US) – przed otwarciem giełdy (BMO)
• PDD Holdings ($PDD.US) – przed otwarciem giełdy (BMO)
• Kandi Technologies ($KNDI.US) – przed otwarciem giełdy (BMO)
• Anavex Life Sciences ($AVXL.US) – po zamknięciu giełdy (AMC)
• Richtech Robotics ($RR.US) – po zamknięciu giełdy (AMC)
• AMTD Digital ($HKD.US) – po zamknięciu giełdy (AMC)

3 markets worth paying attention to

• OIL: As oil prices reached local highs at the end of last week, approaching levels from a month ago, the bar for further increases is set high. Investors are awaiting announcements from Scott Bessent, who is expected to announce actions that the US will take to exert economic pressure on Iran.
• US100: The publication of Nvidia’s results scheduled for Wednesday may leave a clear mark on the broader technology index. It will be a key test for the durability of the entire bull market driven by the development of artificial intelligence. Investors will be looking not just at the financial results for the last three months, but primarily at forecasts regarding further demand for next-generation chips.
• EURUSD: Last week, for the first time since May, the EURUSD pair broke the 1.17 level. A failed intervention by the Treasury Department did not help. This week we are waiting for PCE inflation data and Friday’s speech by Chairman Warsh.

Register a Revolut Business Account