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The offshore yuan held its decline around 6.78 per dollar on Tuesday as investors balanced expectations of slower economic growth against stronger-than-expected trade data. China’s economy is projected to expand 4.5% year-on-year in Q2 on Wednesday, down from 5% in Q1 and near the lower end of Beijing’s 2026 growth target of 4.5%–5%, amid weak consumer spending, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued private investment. Meanwhile, June trade data pointed to solid external demand. Exports surged 27% year-on-year to a record USD 412.4 billion, while imports jumped 36% to an all-time high of USD 286.8 billion, both exceeding forecasts. As a result, the trade surplus widened to USD 125.6 billion. Strong global demand for AI-related hardware and higher semiconductor prices continued to support Asia’s trade flows, helping cushion the impact of domestic economic weakness. Investors are now awaiting this month’s Politburo meeting for clues on potential policy measures to bolster growth.
