China 10Y Yield Rises Amid Strong Trade Data

China’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 1.74% on Tuesday, rebounding from two-week lows as investors weighed stronger-than-expected trade data against signs of slowing economic growth ahead of Q2 GDP figures. Exports surged 27% year-on-year to a record USD 412.4 billion, while imports climbed 36% to an all-time high of USD 286.8 billion, both comfortably exceeding market expectations. As a result, the trade surplus widened to USD 125.6 billion. Robust global demand for AI-related products and firm semiconductor prices continued to support China’s export sector, partly offsetting weakness in the domestic economy. Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to grow 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter on Wednesday, slowing from 5.0% in the first quarter and placing growth near the lower end of Beijing’s 2026 target range of 4.5%–5%, dragged down by weak consumer spending, a prolonged property slump, and subdued private investment.


