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Silver has rallied more than 25% since the start of 2026, extending the powerful uptrend that began in mid-2025. While the medium-term narrative remains firmly constructive, underpinned by persistent supply deficits, resilient industrial demand (solar PV, EVs, grid modernization, etc.), and spillover demand from Gold, the velocity of the recent move warrants some near-term caution, OCBC’s FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.
Gold-Silver ratio tumbles as Silver outperforms sharply
“The Gold-Silver cross fell sharply from last year’s highs near 105 toward the low-50s, reflecting Silver’s sharp outperformance versus Gold. While it is not extreme versus historical lows (30 levels in 2011), the speed of decline adds to the sense of tactical stretch. From a position point of view, the rally in Silver does not appear to have been driven by an ETF or speculative leverage chase. Known ETF Silver holdings peaked in late-December before easing ~2–3% into mid-January, and the 6 January CFTC report showed non-commercial net longs at 29,271 contracts (down from ~45k in mid-Dec) despite greater than 40% surge in prices of Silver over the same period.”
“Positioning therefore remains far from crowded, which reinforces the medium-term bullish case and suggests the market is not at a high risk of a classic leveraged washout. Meanwhile, Silver lease rates also remain subdued, with near term forward curves in contango indicating the recent rally was not driven by acute physical tightness.”
“Taken together, the backdrop signals some caution after an exceptionally rapid extension, though the broader structural bull case remains intact and under-owned. Silver last seen at 91.23 levels. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI enters overbought conditions. Resistance at 98.70 (138.2% fibo projection from the low of Oct to Dec peak), 103.20 (150% fibo). Support at 84, 75 levels (21 DMA). Bias remains to buy dips.”
