UK 10-year gilt yields climbed to 4.8%, extending their rebound from recent lows as markets weighed political uncertainty and global risk sentiment. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election has bolstered his profile as a potential challenger to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, with markets increasingly focused on the possible fiscal implications of a future leadership bid. However, with limited policy detail so far, the impact on public finances and borrowing remains difficult to assess. Meanwhile, crude prices sought to recover from recent steep losses after planned US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland were abruptly canceled, reigniting concerns over the durability of the tentative agreement to end the Middle East conflict. On monetary policy, the Bank of England maintained a cautious stance amid uncertainty over energy-driven inflation risks, while the US Fed signaled that some policymakers still see scope for further tightening later this year.

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