UK retail sales surprised the market in a positive way
March retail sales data from the UK surprised the market on the upside, showing a clear rebound following a weak February. Retail sales volume rose by 0.7% month-over-month, well above the consensus forecast of no change, following a downwardly revised 0.6% decline in February.
On a quarterly basis, sales rose by as much as 1.6% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, a solid result driven primarily by non-food retailers—including art galleries, cosmetics stores, and electronics retailers—which reported new product launches. The main driver of March’s growth was gas stations, where retailers noted increased fuel purchases by drivers in response to rising prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding fuel, sales also rose, albeit more modestly—by 0.2% m/m—supported by stronger clothing sales due to improved weather and new product launches in the telecommunications segment and among online retailers. Online sales rose by 2.4% month-over-month, and their share of total retail sales increased from 28.2% in February to 28.7% in March. It is worth noting, however, that sales volumes remain 0.1% below the pre-pandemic level of February 2020. Source: ONS Detailed information:
- Sales including fuel (MoM): 0.7% (forecast: 0.0%; previous: -0.4%; revision: -0.6%)
- Sales including fuel (year-over-year): 1.7% (forecast: 1.1%; previous: 2.5%; revision: 1.8%)
- Retail sales excluding fuel (MoM): 0.2% (forecast: 0.0%; previous: -0.4%; revision: -0.6%)
- Sales excluding fuel (year-over-year): 1.7% (forecast: 2.0%; previous: 3.4%; revision: 2.7%)
GBP halts its rise against the USD following the release of data. Source: xStation
