US 10-Year Yield Approaches 19-Year High

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose past 4.7% on Monday, not far from the 19-month high of 4.75% tested last week as lingering concerns of inflation and increasing credit supply extended the aversion to bonds in the long end of the curve. Oil prices rose further as President Trump signaled there was no rush to end the blockade against Iran energy, preventing the flow of tankers from the Persian Gulf. Higher energy prices lifted underlying inflation this year, although a softer CPI cooled immediate worries. Still, concerns that the Federal Reserve may be complacent against inflation were reflected by the surge in long-dated yields. These were initially flagged by Fed Chair Warsh stating a rate hike may not be the preferred tool to combat higher prices. Lastly, debt issuance in the US soared as AI companies raised $1.5 trillion in bonds this year, lifting the supply of dollar-denominated fixed-income that could limit the relative appetite for Treasury securities.


