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Bonds

US 10-Year Yield Pressured by Soft Jobs Data

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.66% on Monday but remained subdued after weaker-than-expected US employment data lowered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in July, while sizeable downward revisions to the previous two months reinforced signs of a weakening labor market. Markets now price around a 44% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, down from 67% a week earlier. Investors are turning their attention to key inflation data due this week for further clues on the monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, markets continued to track developments in the Middle East as Iran denied holding direct talks with the US, despite Washington’s claims that a deal was close. Tehran also maintained its demands for an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war-related damage before any agreement.

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