US PCE Prices Likely to Fall for the First Time Since 2020

The US PCE price index is expected to decline 0.1% month-over-month in June 2026, marking its first monthly decrease since April 2020, after rising 0.4% in each of the previous two months. The ceasefire between the US and Iran in June helped ease energy-related inflationary pressures, leading to lower gasoline prices. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise 0.2%, the smallest monthly increase in seven months, following a 0.3% gain in May. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is expected to ease to 3.7% from 4.1% in May, when it reached its highest level since April 2023. If confirmed, the June reading would be the lowest in three months. Core PCE inflation is also forecast to edge down to 3.3% from 3.4%, with May’s reading having been the highest since October 2023. Despite the expected moderation in June, PCE inflation is projected to remain well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.





