
Wheat prices traded around $6.7 per bushel in mid-August, remaining at its highest level since July 24, as escalating tensions in the Black Sea continued to fuel concerns over global grain supplies. Russia rejected the prospect of a Black Sea ceasefire with Ukraine, saying it saw no basis for “half-measures” that would provide relief to its opponent. Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea in recent weeks, disrupting trade flows and driving grain prices higher. Reflecting these risks, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its outlook for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports, cutting its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 46 million tonnes and Ukraine’s to 13.5 million tonnes. Additional support came from deteriorating crop conditions in the southern US Plains, where persistent dryness has raised concerns ahead of the planting season for the 2027 winter wheat crop, which is set to begin in roughly a month.






