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The German Retail Sales Overview
The Federal Statistics Office of Germany, Destatis, will publish the Retail Sales report on Friday at 07:00 GMT.
Germany’s Retail Sales are expected to remain consistent at a 0.2% increase month-over-month (MoM) in October. The annual Retail Sales are also anticipated to remain consistent at 0.2%.
How could the German Retail Sales affect EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD pair could erase daily losses and extend its gains if German Retail Sales beat expectations. Softer data may have a limited downside impact on the Euro (EUR), as ECB minutes signaled policymakers prefer holding rates steady amid uncertainty, with some seeing no need for further easing. Traders await Unemployment and flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany due later in the day.
The EUR/USD pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) could struggle amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests markets are now pricing in over an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, a sharp rise from the 39% probability seen just a week earlier. Traders are also anticipating three additional rate cuts by the end of 2026.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair holds modest losses near 1.1590 at the time of writing, halting its three-day winning streak. The market bias is still active as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 level. The immediate barrier lies at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1606, followed by the monthly high of 1.1655, which was recorded on November 13. On the downside, the immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of 1.1571. Further declines would prompt the EUR/USD pair to test the three-month low of 1.1468.
