Arabica coffee futures rose toward $3.55 per pound, rebounding from recent four-week lows of $3.46, mainly influenced by currency movements, supply dynamics and weather conditions affecting crops in major producing countries. In particular, the ongoing Brazilian real’s relative strength tends to discourage export sales by Brazil’s coffee producers. Dealers noted that the drop in Brazilian grain exports in 2025 continued to weigh on prices. Cecafé reported on January 19 that Brazilian green coffee exports fell 18.4% yoy in December to 2.86 million bags, with Arabica shipments down 10% to 2.6 million bags and Robusta plunging 61% to 222,147 bags. In the meantime, reduced supplies from Colombia added further pressure. Meanwhile, a report from Itaú BBA highlighted that, in the coming months, prices are likely to remain sensitive to erratic weather, characterized by below-average rainfall and intense heat, alongside the geopolitical environment.

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