Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 5%, moving back towards multi-year highs as markets dialed down expectations for a quick end to the Middle East conflict after US President Trump’s address. Oil prices rose after Trump said Washington’s core objectives in the conflict were nearing completion, but gave no clear timeline for ending the war, while warning that the US could still strike Iran “extremely hard” over the next two to three weeks. He added that the US did not need the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting it would reopen naturally once tensions ease, though concerns over the waterway kept energy markets volatile. Economists warned that higher energy costs are set to lift inflation, forcing downgrades to growth forecasts and raising expectations of further RBA rate hikes as stagflation risks increase. Markets are pricing about a 70% chance of a 25bp hike to the RBA’s 4.1% cash rate in May, with rates expected to peak around 4.6% by September.

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