Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 5%, moving toward multi-decade highs as persistent uncertainty over the Middle East conflict kept inflation concerns elevated, while investors await the federal budget for guidance on future issuance. Australia’s government is set to unveil its annual budget later today, with expectations of a narrower-than-forecasted deficit of around A$25 billion, or 0.8% of GDP. The budget is expected to emphasize spending restraint and signal a potential pullback in bond issuance. Commonwealth Bank of Australia estimates issuance could fall to about A$115 billion in fiscal 2027, down from roughly A$125 billion this year. Some analysts also note that a lower government cash balance would make Australian debt more attractive, supporting demand if supply pressures ease. Meanwhile, ongoing difficulties in US–Iran diplomacy and a potential resumption of military operations in the conflict, kept energy prices and inflation risks elevated.

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