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Bonds

Australia 10Y Yield Hits Fresh 15-Year Peak

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield broke above 5.2%, reaching its highest level since July 2011, as surging oil prices fueled inflation concerns while stronger-than-expected economic growth reinforced expectations for an imminent interest rate hike. Australia’s economy expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, beating forecasts for 0.3% growth, while annual growth accelerated to 2.1%, above expectations for 1.8%. The stronger figures suggested economic activity remains resilient despite the Reserve Bank’s efforts to cool demand and curb persistent inflation. Markets raised the odds of a fourth rate hike at the September meeting after the GDP release to 57% from 48% previously, while a November hike is now more than fully priced in. The probability of another hike in Q1 2027 also rose to 82% from 62%. Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran tensions and the resulting rise in oil prices have also rekindled inflationary risks in major economies, pushing global bond yields higher.

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