Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held above 5%, moving near multi-decade highs as markets weighed the government’s 2027 fiscal budget and issuance plans. Bond issuance for the coming year was set at A$125 billion, coming in below expectations and only marginally higher than the current fiscal year. With improved fiscal settings and relatively low public debt by international standards reinforcing Australia’s AAA sovereign rating, the debt market may attract greater foreign investment. However, the budget does little to ease inflation pressures, keeping the door open to further central bank tightening. Latest data also had limited impact, with wage growth coming in as expected in the first quarter while the annual pace eased slightly but remained consistent with persistent labor cost pressures, signaling ongoing inflation resilience. Markets still price around a 20% chance of a June hike to 4.35%, with expectations for an August move to 4.60% edging above 80%.

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