Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to below 5% on Tuesday, but remained near its highest since July 2011 as markets weighed the Reserve Bank’s latest minutes. The central bank signaled uncertainty on the future path for interest rates after two rate hikes this year, due to concerns over the Middle East war. The board acknowledged the need to balance the material bearing of a longer conflict on both inflation and economic activity.

Markets currently price in a 60% chance of another rate hike in May, with around 65 bps of additional tightening expected this year. First-quarter inflation data, labour market figures, and monthly consumer spending indicators due in April will be key inputs ahead of the next policy meeting. Meanwhile, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the economy is unlikely to contract in the second quarter even as activity slows, contrasting with some economists’ forecasts of a contraction driven by higher rates, rising fuel costs, and weaker consumer confidence.

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