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- Australia’s ANZ–Indeed Job Ads rose 2.0% in July, showing broad-based strength across states and industries.
- The TD-MI Inflation Gauge jumped 1.0% in July, marking its first increase since April.
- RBA Governor Bullock warned high underlying inflation could rise further, delaying prospective policy easing.
AUD/USD rises after two days of losses, hovering around 0.7010 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained ground following the release of positive employment data, which showed that ANZ–Indeed Job Ads increased by 2.0% month-over-month in July. This rebound reversed a 0.2% decline from the previous month, marking the fourth monthly rise of the year. According to ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch, the growth was broad-based across both states and industries, reflecting robust labor demand even as the overall economy cools.
Meanwhile, renewed inflationary pressures are further supporting expectations of a cautious stance by the central bank. Data released on Monday showed the TD-MI Inflation Gauge rising 1.0% month-on-month in July, recovering from a 0.4% drop in June and marking its first gain since April. This uptick aligns with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June Meeting Minutes, which projected that underlying price pressures would intensify mid-year.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently emphasized that underlying inflation remains too high and warned of potential further increases driven by higher oil prices stemming from the conflict in Iran, strengthening the case for the RBA to hold off on policy easing.
RBA flags persistent inflation and resilient jobs market
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter acknowledged that “inflation remains above the 2-3% target band” and stressed the central bank must “keep pressure on price growth so higher inflation expectations do not become entrenched.” On the labour market, Hunter judged that conditions are “still somewhat tight,” with job growth having held up “not too badly” over the first half of the year, underscoring ongoing resilience in employment despite softer headline price dynamics.
The AUD/USD pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles on easing geopolitical tensions amid lingering hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran. US President Donald Trump announced that his latest offer of talks is a “last chance” for Iran, following his decision to call off a major attack on the Islamic Republic. Trump expressed expectations that negotiations would begin shortly to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address US concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
