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Societe Generale strategists note that Brent has retreated from recent highs after President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, with Oil prices still seen on an uncertain path back toward normalisation. Their technical team highlights resistance near $120 and the April high around $104, while warning that a failure to hold the 50‑DMA area near $91/90 could trigger a deeper decline.
Oil rebound hinges on key supports
“Oil prices retraced overnight after popping above $100/b intra-day yesterday but even with the indefinite extension of the ceasefire, the path to re-opening the Strait of Hormuz and towards a normalisation in oil prices remains highly uncertain.”
“According to Tehran, there have been signs that the US are ready to lift the naval blockade, a condition to participate in the next round of the negotiations in Pakistan. The US will hold of further strikes until Iran submits a new proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other”.”
“One line of reasoning for the US willingness to extend is rooted in the view fractures exist within the current Iranian leadership and there is no consensus on the negotiation position with regards to the control of nuclear material. Markets have so far seized every extension as a motivation to wade back into risk.”
“Brent has embarked on a phase of pullback after repeatedly encountering strong resistance near $120. It has recently tested the 50‑DMA for the first time since January. A brief consolidation cannot be ruled out.”
“The April high near $104 represents the first hurdle; a break above this would be important to confirm a broader rebound. Conversely, failure to hold above the moving‑average around $91/90 denote the risk of a deeper decline.”
