Bullish DAX 30 While Bayern Shares Gain After Earnings Report

Today’s European trading session is being led by buyers, with Germany’s cash DAX up nearly 1%. Futures are gaining over 0.6% above 24,400 and have moved above the 50-session exponential moving average (EMA50). German inflation data came in line with forecasts.

Source: xStation5

Germany Inflation Data for October

• CPI YoY: 2.3% (Expected: 2.3%; Previous: 2.4%)
• CPI MoM: 0.3% (Expected: 0.3%; Previous: 0.2%)
• HICP YoY: 2.3% (Expected: 2.3%; Previous: 2.4%)
• HICP MoM: 0.3% (Expected: 0.3%; Previous: 0.2%)

German inflation matched market expectations on both a yearly and monthly basis. While the annual rate edged slightly lower, the monthly figure ticked up. Year-on-year inflation has hovered around 2.3% since August, when it rose from roughly 2%. The ECB will need to keep a close eye on the monthly inflation rate, which increased to 0.3% and has been trending higher since August—an unfavourable dynamic from a monetary-policy perspective.

Bayer Q3 2025 Results:

• Revenue: €9.66B (est €9.79B)
• Adjusted EBITDA: €1.51B (est €1.29B)
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: 15.6% (est 13.2%)
• Core EPS: €0.57 (est €0.33)
• FY Consumer Health sales guidance: –1% to +1%

Bayer AG reported Q3 2025 results showing improved profitability despite a challenging market backdrop and ongoing U.S. legal issues. The beat versus analyst expectations was driven mainly by Crop Science and rising demand for new pharmaceuticals. Adjusted EBITDA rose to €1.51B vs the €1.29B forecast (a beat of over 17%). The EBITDA margin increased to 15.6% (vs 13.2% expected). Revenue totalled €9.66B, just below the €9.79B consensus.

Segment detail:

• Pharma: adj. EBITDA €1.05B (est €1.04B)
• Crop Science: adj. EBITDA €172M, well above expectations (€24.4M)
• Consumer Health: adj. EBITDA €363M (est €347.7M)

The Crop Science segment surprised to the upside as profitability improved thanks to cost efficiencies and strong demand for corn seeds, though low glyphosate prices continue to cap earnings potential. Pharma remains a key profit pillar: robust demand for Kerendia (kidney disease) and Nubeqa (oncology) helped offset declines in older products.

Sales highlights:

• Nubeqa: €622M (est €576M)
• Kerendia: €221M (est €193M)

Older therapies—Xarelto (€540M, est €610M) and Eylea (€731M, est €848M)—posted double-digit declines amid generic competition and pricing pressure. Bayer is looking to the newly FDA-approved Lynkuet (menopause) to support upcoming quarters.

Crop Science EBITDA rose to €172M vs €24M a year earlier, aided by corn-seed sales and cost-saving programmes. Bayer also noted that low prices for glyphosate (the active ingredient in Roundup) continue to weigh on revenue potential and said it may end production at certain sites, including Louisiana.

CEO Bill Anderson continues rebuilding investor trust after the 2018 Monsanto acquisition. The company faces mass U.S. litigation related to Roundup. As of end-September, 197,000 claims had been filed (up 5,000 since mid-July), with about 65,000 still outstanding; Bayer maintains glyphosate is safe. Anderson said the efficiency programme, including headcount reductions, is improving both top- and bottom-line performance, and he aims to significantly reduce legal risk by end-2026.

Outlook & Guidance

Bayer maintained its group guidance for 2025 but lowered Consumer Health guidance to –1% to +1% (from growth at the low end of 2–5%), citing tougher conditions in North America and Asia. At the group level, Bayer now expects special items in full-year EBITDA of –€4.0B to –€3.5B and in EBIT of –€3.0B to –€2.5B, both worse than prior estimates. The company also anticipates significant FX headwinds in 2026, while reiterating that its multi-pronged strategy across pharma, agriculture, and consumer health remains the right path.

Year-to-date, the share price is up over 40%, though still well below pre-Monsanto levels. Analysts largely agree that Crop Science drove the profitability beat:

• Barclays: “Strong ag performance was the main driver of the EBITDA beat.”
• JPMorgan: “Crop Science strength and lower reconciliation costs offset weaker Pharma.”
• Morgan Stanley: “Efficiency and cost savings helped, though group guidance remains unchanged.”

Overall, Bayer’s Q3 2025 suggests the company is gradually regaining its financial and reputational footing. Strong ag results, new medicines and restructuring support the recovery, while U.S. litigation and pharma pricing pressure remain the key risks. Investors appear to recognise that CEO Bill Anderson’s focus on efficiency, cost control and innovative therapies is starting to deliver.

Source: xStation5

E.ON 9M 2025 Results:

• Adj. EBIT: €4.75B (+8.7% YoY)
• Revenue: €57.51B (+2.2% YoY)
• FY adj. net income guidance: €2.85B–€3.05B (est €3.0B)
• FY adj. EBITDA guidance: €9.6B–€9.8B (est €9.77B)

Source: xStation5

Infineon Q4 2025 Results:

• Revenue: €3.94B (est €3.9B)
• Total segment profit: €717M (est €725.3M)
• Segment result margin: 18.2% (est 18.5%)
• GIP margin: 14.9% (est 16.8%)
• Dividend/share: €0.35 (est €0.36)
• Q1 2026 revenue outlook: ~€3.6B (est €3.75B)
• Expects Q1 segment margin in the mid-to-high teens
• 2026 revenue: moderately higher vs 2025
• 2026 segment margin: high-teens

Source: xStation5

ABN AMRO Q3 2025 Results:

• Net profit: €617M (est €591.2M)
• Net interest income: €1.58B (est €1.59B)
• CET1 ratio: 14.8%
• Plans to acquire NIBC Bank from Blackstone for about €960M.

Source: xStation5

Brenntag – 2025 Outlook and Q3 2025 Results

Outlook: Company expects FY operating EBITA to be at the lower end of €950M–€1.05B (Bloomberg consensus: €969.7M).

Q3 2025:

• Operating gross profit: €947.2M (–7.1% YoY, est €949.1M)
• Essentials: €677.5M (est €673M)
• Specialties: €269.7M (est €276M)
• Operating EBITA: €243.0M (–14% YoY, est €236M)
• Essentials EBITA: €170.1M (est €160.6M)
• Specialties EBITA: €92.5M (est €100.7M)
• Profit after tax: €114.3M (–4.8% YoY, est €104.4M)
• EPS: €0.78 vs €0.82 YoY (est €0.71)
• Sales: €3.72B (–8.6% YoY, est €3.75B)

Brenntag will continue operating the two divisions (Essentials and Specialties) within one group; a full separation is off the table. The company has launched a group-level strategic review to align its business and operating model with evolving customer needs and market dynamics. A new strategy is slated for H2 2026. Work on the review is ongoing, and FY 2025 EBITA is now expected toward the lower end of the range.

Source: xStation5

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