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Bulls Are Once Again Hoping for Normalization in the Middle East

European stock market indices opened the session firmly in positive territory, with the DE40 up +1.78%, the EU50 up +1.61% and the SPA35 up +1.65%, whilst Wall Street is set to open on a similarly optimistic note following gains in the US500 (+0.92%) and US100 (+1.25%) futures. The main driver behind the rise is the lull in hostilities between the US and Iran, which has now lasted for a third night in a row and is providing ‘space’ for diplomatic talks mediated by Oman and China. Iran has declared that it will halt its own attacks provided that the United States also refrains from striking, following Washington’s suspension of its bombing campaign due to concerns over dwindling munitions stocks. However, the situation remains fragile – against this backdrop, there have been Saudi strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, which Tehran has described as a “hostile and criminal act”. Oil prices are falling sharply in response to the de-escalation – WTI is down by over 7.9 per cent, whilst Brent is slumping by a similar margin, approaching the $87–90 per barrel mark, after having edged close to $100 last week. The US dollar is under pressure and is falling (USDIDX -0.16%) against a basket of currencies, as lower energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions are reducing the risk premium associated with holding cash.

By sector, technology and industrial companies are performing best in Europe, with Wolters Kluwer (+5.49%) and SAP (+4.69%) leading the gains on the Euro Stoxx 50, benefiting from a rotation of capital away from the energy sector. The energy sector is performing the worst, with Eni down 3.39 per cent and TotalEnergies down 3.09 per cent, directly reflecting the slump in oil prices, whilst the consumer goods sector is also seeing a slight decline, with Anheuser-Busch InBev down 1.70 per cent. Gold and silver are up by around 1.09 per cent and 1.85 per cent respectively, buoyed by a weaker dollar and falling bond yields ahead of the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.

Company information

  • AstraZeneca rose by 1.7% after its second-quarter results (core EPS of $2.63 versus a consensus estimate of $2.48) beat expectations, and the company reaffirmed its targets for 2026 and 2030 despite a recent setback in clinical trials.
  • Vodafone rose by around 3.7–4 per cent after raising its full-year forecast following the Safaricom deal, announcing that results would be at the upper end of the revised range.
  • Zabka fell by 10.5 per cent and was the worst-performing company in the STOXX 600 after Japan’s Seven & i Holdings pulled out of a potential investment in the Polish convenience store chain.
  • SAP continued Friday’s gains, rising a further 5.5% (a total of +4.69% over one day), driving the STOXX 600 technology index up by 2.4%.
  • Barclays has upgraded its recommendation for Inditex to ‘overweight’, raising its target price by 12% to €62.50, citing strong inventory control and pricing power.
  • Jefferies downgraded its recommendation on Delivery Hero to ‘hold’ following Uber’s takeover bid of €41.50 per share, citing limited upside potential relative to the proposed price.
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