TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that Canadian rates are opening weaker, with yields tracking US moves and geopolitical tensions. They expect CAD employment to show only a modest rebound and see imported volatility dominating. The team remains biased long 2-year Canadas, watching Middle East developments and domestic data, including the March Labour Force Survey.

Rates track US as jobs rebound

“Canadian rates are opening weaker, with domestic yields 2-3 bps higher across the curve as we follow the US into the open after Friday’s payrolls.”

“Looking at the week ahead, with the busy US data calendar, we’d expect larger moves this week to be imported rather than domestic drivers.”

“CAD employment on Friday could move the market, but geopolitical drivers may hold more weight later in the week if no agreement is reached by Tuesday night’s deadline.”

“However, the 5y auction will be in the backdrop as well, which will put some weight on duration this week.”

“We continue to be biased long 2s, but we’ll be keeping a close eye amidst geopolitical risk events for this week.”

Octalas AI

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