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Cocoa prices collapsed on the London exchange by approx. 9%, diving below $5,000 per ton to their lowest level in two years. The unprecedented selling pressure is the result of both weakening demand and a significant improvement in harvests in East Africa.
Source: xStation5
Europe Breaking Up with Chocolate?
The latest data from the European Cocoa Association indicate an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in cocoa demand in Europe. Raw material processing (grindings) fell in Q4 2025 by 8.3% YoY, significantly exceeding the forecasted drop of 2.9%. This negative surprise—marking the worst quarter in 12 years—aligns with a global trend: processing declines were also reported in Brazil (-13%) and Asia (-4.8%), while North America remained the exception (+0.3%). The data triggered a panic liquidation of long positions in cocoa.
Supply Deepens the Pressure
Improved weather conditions in West Africa also played a significant role, dispelling autumn concerns regarding the longevity of better harvests. According to Mondelez, cocoa pod counts are currently 7% above the 5-year average, while deliveries to Ivory Coast ports are also accelerating, regularly exceeding 50,000 tons. The result of this accelerating production is expected to be the first market surplus in 4 years (Source: ICCO).
The Premium Market Isn’t Complaining
Despite price pressures, the premium sector seems to be finding great success in offering increasingly expensive products to wealthy clients. For example, Lindt & Sprüngli reported 12.4% sales growth driven by price hikes, proving that luxury goods consumers are able to absorb the higher costs. Over the past year, the company’s shares gained approx. 11%, although the last few weeks have been spent in a sideways trend following a correction from all-time highs.
Lindt share prices were resilient to cocoa price volatility throughout 2025. Source: xStation5
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