Cocoa futures traded around $3,300 per tonne in early April, consolidating after fund short covering at the end of March. Prices remain near August 2023 lows, as market fundamentals remained underpinned by expectations of abundant supply and weak demand. Favourable weather in key producer Ivory Coast has lifted the outlook for the March-August mid-crop harvest, with above-average rainfall last week supporting expectations of a longer and stronger season.

At the same time, certified stocks monitored by ICE continue their upward trajectory, rising to an 8.25-month high of 2,362,668 bags by March 31. Meanwhile, market attention is shifting to Q1 grind data for Europe and North America due on April 16 for insights into demand. The consensus among market participants is that the figures should confirm the fragility of global demand, reflecting the prolonged impact of high prices throughout 2024 and the consequent adjustment in consumption by the industry.

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