Cotton Price Forecast: Futures Fall as Stronger US Dollar and Harvest Progress Weigh on Market

US cotton futures are facing renewed selling pressure, with contracts falling between 79 and 113 points as a stronger US dollar and weaker crude oil prices add to the bearish market backdrop. December 2026 cotton settled at 78.06 cents per pound, while March 2027 fell to 81.82 cents and May 2027 declined to 83.39 cents.

The latest US crop progress report presents a mixed supply outlook. Cotton boll opening remains behind the historical average, but harvesting is progressing faster than normal. Meanwhile, the final crop condition rating deteriorated, pointing to some deterioration in reported crop quality.

Physical market indicators are also mixed. The Cotlook A Index declined, trading activity on The Seam remained limited, and ICE-certified cotton stocks fell. Traders must therefore balance the pressure from currency and energy markets against crop conditions, export-market competitiveness and the availability of deliverable cotton.

Market Snapshot

Current Cotton Price Action

Cotton futures closed lower across the reported contracts, with December 2026 declining 100 points to 78.06 cents per pound. March 2027 fell 104 points to 81.82 cents, while May 2027 dropped 113 points to 83.39 cents.

The broad-based decline indicates that selling pressure extended across the listed maturities rather than being confined to the nearby contract.

The stronger US dollar is a potential headwind for internationally traded US cotton because it can make American supplies more expensive for overseas buyers when priced in other currencies. However, the actual impact depends on competing origins, shipping costs, export demand and changes in global cotton prices.

Crude oil also declined by $1.56 per barrel. Lower energy prices can reduce some production and transportation costs, but they may also put pressure on polyester, a competing fibre derived from petrochemical feedstocks. The relationship is not immediate or one-directional, but synthetic-fibre pricing remains an important factor in cotton’s longer-term demand outlook.

The next directional move will depend on whether technical selling continues or whether crop concerns and tightening certified stocks attract renewed buying.

US Crop Progress and Harvest Outlook

The latest crop progress figures show a mixed picture for US cotton production.

Boll opening remains behind average

By October 25, 89% of the US cotton crop had reached the boll-opening stage, compared with a historical average of 92%.

The three-percentage-point shortfall suggests that crop development remains behind its normal pace. Depending on regional weather conditions and the remaining time available for maturation, delayed boll opening can affect harvesting schedules and potentially expose parts of the crop to additional weather risk.

However, the national figure alone does not establish the size of any resulting production loss. Regional conditions, yield potential and the timing of harvest will determine the practical impact.

Harvest progresses ahead of normal

Harvest was reported at 52% complete, seven percentage points ahead of the normal pace.

Faster harvesting can help reduce exposure to adverse weather and move cotton into the supply chain sooner. It can also improve visibility around the remaining crop, although the eventual impact on production depends on yields and fibre quality.

The combination of delayed boll opening and faster harvesting illustrates why crop development and harvesting progress should be assessed separately.

Crop conditions deteriorate

The final crop condition rating for the year showed good-to-excellent conditions falling by two percentage points to 33%. The Brugler500 index declined three points to 289.

The deterioration provides a potentially supportive factor for prices because poorer crop conditions can raise concerns about yield or quality. Nevertheless, crop ratings do not translate directly into a specific production estimate, and the market will need additional evidence before determining whether the decline materially changes the supply outlook.

Physical Cotton Market and Certified Stocks

Physical-market indicators remain mixed, with lower benchmark prices and limited reported trading activity contrasting with a reduction in ICE-certified stocks.

The Seam reported only 61 bales sold on October 27 at an average price of 65.15 cents per pound. The limited volume makes it difficult to draw broad conclusions about the direction of overall physical demand from this indicator alone.

The Cotlook A Index fell 50 points on October 26 to 91.95 cents per pound, signalling weakness in the reported international benchmark.

Meanwhile, ICE-certified cotton stocks declined by 1,074 bales on October 26, leaving 26,791 bales certified. Lower certified stocks can matter to futures traders because they affect the supply of cotton available for delivery against exchange contracts. However, certified stocks represent only one part of the wider cotton supply and should not be confused with total global inventories.

The Adjusted World Price increased by 40 points to 65.01 cents per pound. This measure is relevant to the US cotton support framework and provides additional context for domestic pricing conditions, although its increase does not by itself establish stronger commercial demand.

Traders will be watching whether certified stocks continue to decline and whether physical-market prices stabilise following the recent weakness in futures.

Bullish Sentiment for Cotton

1. Crop conditions deteriorate: The decline in good-to-excellent ratings to 33% and the lower Brugler500 reading may raise concerns about final production quality and yield.
2. Boll opening trails the average: The three-percentage-point gap against the normal pace leaves some uncertainty around crop development and remaining harvest exposure.
3. ICE-certified stocks decline: A further reduction in deliverable stocks could provide support if it continues and coincides with stronger demand.
4. Harvest-related weather risk: Any adverse weather affecting the remaining crop could create additional uncertainty over production and fibre quality.
5. Potential technical recovery: If prices stabilise after the broad-based decline and buyers return, cotton could recover some of its recent losses.

Bearish Sentiment for Cotton

1. Broad-based futures selling: December, March and May contracts all closed lower, demonstrating widespread pressure across the listed maturities.
2. Stronger US dollar: Dollar appreciation can make US cotton less competitive for some overseas buyers, depending on exchange rates and competing supplies.
3. Faster-than-normal harvesting: Harvest progress seven percentage points ahead of average may help bring available supplies to market more quickly.
4. Lower Cotlook A Index: The decline in the international benchmark points to weakness in the reported physical-market price indicator.
5. Weak reported trading activity: The small volume reported on The Seam offers little evidence of strong buying interest, although it is not representative of the entire physical market.
6. Lower crude oil prices: Reduced energy costs may ease some supply-chain expenses, while weaker petroleum prices can also weigh on the competitiveness of polyester relative to cotton.

Cotton Technical Analysis and Price Forecast

Cotton futures have experienced a broad-based decline, with December 2026 settling at 78.06 cents per pound, March 2027 at 81.82 cents and May 2027 at 83.39 cents.

The available figures establish the latest settlements and daily changes but do not include a live price chart, historical swing levels or technical indicator readings. Specific support and resistance levels beyond the supplied prices therefore cannot be confirmed reliably.

Key price references

• 78.06 cents/lb: December 2026 settlement and the main nearby contract reference in the supplied update.
• 81.82 cents/lb: March 2027 settlement, useful for monitoring the deferred contract’s price action.
• 83.39 cents/lb: May 2027 settlement, providing a separate reference for the later maturity.

These prices belong to different futures contracts and should not be treated as interchangeable support or resistance levels. Each contract has its own price history and technical structure.

Bullish scenario

Cotton could recover if deteriorating crop conditions become a greater concern, certified stocks continue to decline and futures regain buying interest. A sustained move above the recent chart-defined swing high would provide stronger technical confirmation of a recovery.

A weaker dollar or improvement in the international cotton benchmark could add support, particularly if accompanied by evidence of stronger export demand.

Bearish scenario

Further declines remain possible if the dollar continues to strengthen, harvesting progresses without major disruption and international price benchmarks remain weak. A break below the latest confirmed swing low in the December contract would strengthen the case for continued selling.

Persistent weakness across the March and May contracts would indicate that the pressure is not limited to the nearby maturity.

Technical indicators to monitor

• Moving averages: Determine whether cotton remains in a short- or medium-term downtrend.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Assess whether selling momentum is accelerating or becoming stretched.
• MACD: Look for evidence of continuing bearish momentum or an emerging bullish reversal.
• Trading volume: Check whether a breakdown or recovery is supported by meaningful participation.
• Intermarket signals: Monitor the US dollar, crude oil, international cotton prices and certified stocks alongside futures price action.

The immediate priority is to determine whether cotton can stabilise following the latest broad-based decline or whether sellers maintain control.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Cotton faces competing influences as traders assess crop development, harvest progress, physical-market indicators and wider financial-market conditions.

The key scenarios are:

• Bearish continuation: A stronger dollar, weak international benchmark prices and continued selling pressure could push futures lower, particularly if harvest progress reduces concerns about immediate supply availability.
• Fundamental stabilisation: Deteriorating crop conditions and declining ICE-certified stocks could help establish a floor if traders become more concerned about quality or deliverable supply.
• Range-bound trading: Mixed crop signals and limited physical-market activity could keep prices volatile without establishing a clear directional trend.
• Bullish recovery: A weaker dollar, renewed physical buying or weather-related concerns affecting the remaining crop could encourage a rebound.

The market will need confirmation from export demand, physical prices and subsequent inventory information before a durable trend can be established. Harvest progress remains important, but the eventual supply picture depends on final yields, quality and the availability of cotton that meets market requirements.

For traders, the relationship between the dollar and international cotton benchmarks will be particularly important. For producers and merchants, the priority is understanding how price movements affect the value of unsold inventory and expected sales revenue.

Currency Hedger View

Cotton producers, merchants, textile manufacturers and importers may face both commodity-price exposure and foreign-exchange risk. A business selling cotton in US dollars but operating in another currency can see its local-currency receipts change even if the dollar-denominated cotton price remains unchanged.

Likewise, textile manufacturers importing cotton or selling finished products internationally may face uncertainty from changes in raw-material prices, exchange rates and payment timing.

Currency Hedger encourages businesses to assess their expected purchases and sales, invoicing currencies, payment dates and commercial margins before considering an appropriate hedging strategy. Commodity-price risk and currency risk are distinct, but both can affect the profitability of the same transaction.

Explore the services available through Currency Hedger or open an account to discuss your currency exposure and risk-management requirements.

Disclaimer

This article is provided for general market commentary and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell cotton futures, commodities or other financial instruments. Agricultural markets are affected by weather, crop conditions, global supply and demand, currency movements and changes in competing-fibre prices. Technical scenarios are conditional and do not guarantee future results. Businesses should assess their individual circumstances and seek appropriate professional advice before entering into financial transactions or hedging arrangements.

Register a Revolut Business Account