Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Holds Above $98 as Strait of Hormuz Risks Clash With Recovering Gulf Shipments

Crude oil prices are holding above $98 per barrel as traders weigh escalating geopolitical tensions against signs that Persian Gulf oil shipments are recovering. Energy flows have reportedly returned to around 80% of pre-war levels, offering some relief to a market still facing significant uncertainty over shipping security, refined-product availability and energy infrastructure.

The immediate outlook remains finely balanced. Recovering crude shipments could ease supply concerns, but continued attacks on commercial vessels, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and renewed strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure are sustaining a substantial geopolitical risk premium.

Market Snapshot

Current Oil Price Action: Supply Recovery Limits Further Gains

Crude oil is holding near elevated levels as traders assess whether improving physical flows can offset persistent geopolitical risks.

The reported recovery in Persian Gulf shipments to approximately 80% of pre-war levels suggests that some supply constraints are easing. However, the recovery remains incomplete, while limited refined-product deliveries indicate that disruptions are not affecting all parts of the energy supply chain equally.

This distinction matters because crude availability and the supply of finished fuels are not interchangeable. Even if crude exports recover, constraints involving refining, shipping, insurance or distribution can continue to affect regional fuel markets.

For oil traders, the central question is whether supply normalisation will accelerate or whether further attacks and shipping restrictions will interrupt the recovery.

Supply and Production Outlook: Persian Gulf Flows Remain Critical

The recovery in Persian Gulf oil shipments is an important development for the global supply outlook. If flows continue to improve, the additional availability of crude could reduce the immediate risk of shortages and place downward pressure on prices.

However, shipments remaining below pre-war levels leave the market exposed to renewed disruption. The significance of the recovery will depend on whether it is sustained across subsequent reporting periods and whether oil can move reliably through key maritime routes.

Strait of Hormuz: The Critical Supply Route

Iran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, while maritime authorities have reported multiple attacks on commercial ships.

The strait is a critical passage for international energy trade. Any sustained restriction or deterioration in shipping security could delay crude deliveries, increase freight and insurance costs, and force buyers to seek alternative supplies.

Even without a complete interruption, persistent security risks can raise the cost of moving oil and discourage normal shipping activity.

The market will therefore remain sensitive to evidence of safe passage, changes in vessel movements and any further escalation involving commercial shipping.

The Oil Tanker Market: Sanctions and the Dark Fleet

The Trump administration is authorising the sale of sanctioned oil tankers to enable them to transport crude legally, while the global dark fleet is estimated at around 1,600 vessels.

The development highlights the importance of tanker availability and sanctions enforcement in determining how effectively oil reaches international buyers.

Expanding the pool of vessels able to operate legally could support transport capacity, depending on the number of tankers involved, their suitability and the routes they can serve. However, the reported size of the dark fleet does not mean that all those vessels are available for immediate use in the conventional oil trade.

The market impact will depend on how quickly tanker capacity can be brought into compliant operations and whether shipping security, insurance and port access allow those vessels to operate effectively.

Bullish Sentiment: Factors Supporting Crude Oil Prices

1. Strait of Hormuz disruption risk: Continued uncertainty around this strategic shipping route could threaten the reliability of global oil supplies.
2. Attacks on commercial vessels: Further incidents could delay shipments, increase insurance premiums and push up transportation costs.
3. Regional military escalation: Continued exchanges involving Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen could widen the risk of disruption across regional energy infrastructure and shipping routes.
4. Russia–Ukraine energy attacks: Renewed strikes on energy infrastructure could affect production, processing, exports or logistics, depending on the facilities targeted.
5. Incomplete supply recovery: Persian Gulf shipments remain below pre-war levels, leaving room for further disruptions to tighten the physical market.
6. Restricted refined-product deliveries: Limited fuel shipments could keep refined-product markets under pressure even if crude flows improve.

Bearish Sentiment: Factors That Could Weigh on Oil

1. Recovering Persian Gulf shipments: The reported return to around 80% of pre-war levels suggests that crude supply constraints are easing.
2. Further normalisation of exports: Continued improvement in shipping flows could reduce scarcity concerns and encourage prices to retreat.
3. Additional legal tanker capacity: Bringing more vessels into compliant oil transportation could help improve logistical flexibility if implementation is effective.
4. Reduced geopolitical risk premium: Credible improvements in maritime security or a reduction in hostilities could remove some of the premium currently embedded in prices.
5. Improved crude availability: If supply recovery outpaces renewed disruptions, traders may increasingly focus on physical availability rather than worst-case scenarios.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: What Traders Are Watching

With oil holding above $98 per barrel, the next move will depend heavily on whether physical supply continues to recover and whether geopolitical risks intensify.

Bullish scenario: Prices could extend their gains if attacks on commercial vessels increase, the Strait of Hormuz becomes more difficult to navigate or renewed strikes materially disrupt energy production and exports. A reversal in Persian Gulf shipment recovery would strengthen this scenario.

Bearish scenario: Oil could come under pressure if shipments continue approaching pre-war levels, refined-product deliveries improve and tanker operations become more reliable. A sustained reduction in maritime security risks could further weaken the geopolitical premium.

Range-bound scenario: Prices could remain elevated and volatile if improving crude flows are offset by continued security concerns. In this environment, traders may respond sharply to individual shipping incidents and changes in reported export volumes without establishing a lasting directional trend.

These scenarios are conditional. The information supplied does not establish a confirmed technical breakout, a specific support level or a reliable price target beyond the reported market level.

Demand Outlook: Supply Security Remains the Immediate Focus

The supplied information centres on supply and logistics rather than a measurable change in global oil consumption. As a result, the near-term price outlook is being shaped primarily by the availability and reliability of physical shipments.

If supplies recover, refiners and importers may face less urgency to secure alternative barrels. Conversely, continued disruption could encourage precautionary purchasing and increase competition for reliably delivered crude and refined products.

Demand conditions will still matter, particularly if elevated energy prices persist long enough to affect economic activity and fuel consumption. However, without updated consumption, refinery or inventory data, the extent of any demand response cannot be established from the available figures alone.

Refined Products: Why Fuel Markets May Remain Tight

The reported limitation in refined-product deliveries is an important distinction for the broader energy market.

Crude oil must be processed into products such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel before it can meet many end-user requirements. Consequently, a recovery in crude shipments does not necessarily resolve shortages of finished fuels.

If refined-product flows remain constrained, fuel prices and refining margins may stay elevated even as crude availability improves. Traders should therefore monitor refined-product exports and deliveries separately from crude shipments when assessing whether the overall energy supply situation is normalising.

Market Outlook for the Coming Sessions

Crude oil’s near-term outlook remains sensitive to developments across the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

The key indicators to monitor are:

• Persian Gulf shipment recovery: Whether flows improve beyond the reported 80% of pre-war levels.
• Strait of Hormuz security: Any additional attacks, navigation restrictions or evidence of safer commercial passage.
• Refined-product deliveries: Whether fuel supply begins recovering alongside crude exports.
• Tanker availability: Whether the authorisation of sanctioned tanker sales translates into additional effective transport capacity.
• Energy infrastructure attacks: Any damage that materially affects production, refining or export facilities.
• Physical market conditions: Updated inventory, export and refinery data that can confirm whether supply is genuinely loosening.

The balance remains two-sided. Improving shipments are an important bearish signal, but the market is not yet insulated from renewed supply shocks. Until flows recover more fully and maritime risks diminish, sharp price reactions to geopolitical developments are likely to remain a central feature of the market.

Currency Hedger View: Oil Volatility and International Business Costs

For businesses purchasing energy, importing goods or managing international supply chains, elevated crude prices can increase operating costs and create uncertainty around cash flow.

Oil is traded internationally in US dollars, meaning companies whose functional currencies are weaker against the dollar may face a double cost pressure: higher underlying energy prices and less favourable exchange rates.

Businesses with recurring USD-denominated fuel, freight or supplier payments should assess both commodity-price exposure and currency risk. Depending on their circumstances, appropriate currency hedging arrangements may help provide greater certainty over future payment costs, although they do not eliminate the underlying commodity-price risk.

Manage international currency exposure with Currency Hedger:

• Open a Currency Hedger account
• Visit Currency Hedger

Today Markets Analysis

Crude oil remains supported above $98 per barrel by geopolitical uncertainty, maritime security risks and continued attacks on energy infrastructure. At the same time, the recovery of Persian Gulf shipments to approximately 80% of pre-war levels suggests that the physical supply situation is improving.

The decisive factor is whether that recovery can continue without further disruption. Sustained improvements in crude and refined-product deliveries would weaken the case for persistently elevated prices, while renewed attacks or interruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly restore upward pressure.

For the coming sessions, the outlook remains volatile and event-driven. Traders should distinguish between improving headline shipment figures and the actual reliability of deliveries, while avoiding the assumption that every geopolitical escalation will automatically produce a sustained rally.

Market analysis by Today Markets, with international payment and currency exposure insights from Currency Hedger.

Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity prices can be highly volatile, particularly during geopolitical crises, and leveraged trading can result in substantial losses. Market scenarios are conditional and are not guarantees of future performance. Traders should conduct their own research and assess their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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