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BondsOpinionTechnical Analysis

Treasury triples bond buybacks, but yields keep rising, TNOTE at its highest since November 2023

The U.S. Treasury has tripled the size of its next long-term bond buyback to $6 billion, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seeks to curb rising borrowing costs.

  • Despite the larger buyback, U.S. Treasury prices fell, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.85%, its highest level since 2023. Investors may have expected stronger intervention.
  • Bessent stresses that the expanded buybacks are intended to improve market liquidity and limit sharp moves in yields, rather than alter the fundamental valuation of U.S. Treasuries.
  • Interestingly, before the latest move, Bessent had indicated that the scale of buybacks would be “at least doubled.” In the end, it was tripled, yet yields rose even further following the announcement.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury futures contract has fallen to levels not seen since November 2023, with the RSI close to oversold territory. The downtrend has continued virtually uninterrupted since early March 2026.

Source: xStation5

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