The dollar index held above 101 on Wednesday after advancing in the previous session, supported by renewed safe-haven demand as the US military carried out fresh air strikes on Iran following recent attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation threatened the interim US-Iran peace deal to end the war and pushed oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears and raising prospects for interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting for additional clues on the policy outlook after the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone at its June policy meeting. Markets are currently pricing in around a 50% chance of a Fed rate increase in September, up from about 46% a day prior. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday showed the US trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion in May, the largest since March 2025.

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