Deutsche Bank economists Michael Kirker, Maria Contreras and Kuhumita Bhattacharya say the ECB kept rates at 2% and maintained a balanced risk assessment, despite some hawkish nuances. They highlight domestic resilience, anchored inflation expectations and a data-dependent stance. Their baseline sees ECB policy rates unchanged through 2026, with the next move a hike in mid‑2027 as labour markets stay tight.

Rates steady with data-dependent stance

“The ECB left policy rates unchanged at 2%, with President Lagarde reiterating that monetary policy is “in a good place”. The overall communication was one of constructive balance, with no clear directional signal for future policy moves.”

“The risks to the outlook were described as broadly balanced. Upside risks to growth now include the adoption of new technologies like AI and deeper integration of the EU’s Single Market.”

“Despite some constructive and hawkish elements in the press conference, the Governing Council is comfortable with the current policy stance and continues to favor a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.”

“Our baseline view remains unchanged. We expect that ECB policy rates will remain on hold at 2% throughout 2026, with the next move being a hike in mid-2027 as domestic resilience and a tight labour market eventually dominate external vulnerabilities.”

“For the ECB, the increasing concentration of the inflation probability distributions around the 2% mark will provide confidence to look through any near-term undershoot in inflation, supporting the view that policy is currently “in a good place.””

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