Forecasting the upcoming week: US inflation takes center stage next week

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 100.00 region after sinking through Friday’s session. July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed the US economy shedding 23K jobs against forecasts of an 80K gain, with June revised down to 20K, and Average Hourly Earnings slowing to 3.2% on the year. Markets that had spent late July pricing a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) reversed course in the morning. This coming Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), projected at 3.4% YoY headline and 2.5% YoY on the core measure, now decides whether that repricing extends or stalls. Two Fed speakers follow on Thursday, with Hammack and Barkin both scheduled.

long the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The second full week of August will test whether the US Dollar sell-off that followed July’s payrolls collapse has further to run as investors turn from the labor market to prices. The spotlight falls on Wednesday’s CPI report, with Producer Price Index (PPI), Retail Sales and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey filling out the week.

On the other side of the pond, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, and the United Kingdom (UK) publishes second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. China opens proceedings on Sunday with inflation figures that will shape the tone for commodity-linked currencies.

The EUR/USD pair ends the week above the 1.1550 region, near two-month peaks. The Eurozone calendar is heavy on confirmations rather than surprises: German and Italian final inflation figures land on Wednesday, followed by Spanish and French readings later in the week, while Thursday brings Eurozone Industrial Production. The main event is Friday’s preliminary second-quarter GDP, expected at 0.4% on the quarter and 1% on the year, alongside the first read on Employment Change. With the European Central Bank (ECB) content to wait, the pair remains a Dollar story.

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3500 as it closes the week, testing the resistance level for the second time this month. The UK finally has something of its own to trade on. Thursday delivers second-quarter GDP, forecast to slow to 0.4% from 0.6%, with monthly GDP seen contracting 0.1% and Manufacturing Production expected to fall. A soft set of numbers would complicate the Bank of England’s position and give Cable its first domestic drag in weeks.

USD/JPY ends the week beneath the 158.00 barrier after the Yen jumped on the US NFP miss, with traders still alert to intervention a week on from the joint Tokyo-Washington operation. Japan’s calendar is thin with June Current Account figures on Sunday the only notable release. That leaves the pair hostage to US data and to the question of whether authorities return.

AUD/USD trades below the 0.7100 level, its best in two months as the Aussie has gained strength. The RBA will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday and is universally expected to hold at 4.35%, shifting attention to the accompanying statement and Governor Bullock’s speech on Thursday. Chinese CPI and PPI on Sunday matter as much: consumer prices are seen slowing to 0.8% annually and factory-gate inflation to 3.8%, and softer readings would revive the growth concerns that have capped the Aussie all year.

Gold ends the week above $4,300 after its strongest run since January. The metal has been carried by collapsing rate-hike expectations, which makes Wednesday’s CPI the single most important release on its calendar. A soft print would confirm the move. A firm one would force a reassessment, particularly with Strait of Hormuz risk keeping energy prices unsettled and the inflation question unresolved.

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