US gasoline prices fell to around $2.90 per gallon in June, halting a three-day gain, as markets tracked a rapidly shifting US–Iran peace talk narrative. Both sides agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, with technical talks set to continue through the rest of the week, according to mediators Qatar and Pakistan in Switzerland. However, doubts over the viability of the agreement persisted after local media earlier reported that Iran suspended talks following President Donald Trump’s renewed threats of military action. The fast-changing developments have left markets assessing how soon oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal operations. A normalization of shipping would open the door to higher crude supply from the region, alongside potential adjustments in OPEC+ output policy and a gradual return of Iranian barrels to export markets, feeding into global refining supply.

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