TD Securities expects UK Retail Sales for February to decline, projecting -0.6% month-on-month versus the market’s -0.7% and January’s 1.8%. They bank attributes the pullback to fading idiosyncratic supports and adverse weather weighing on physical store traffic. Despite weaker monthly data, TD Securities judges overall consumer momentum in the UK to remain positive.

UK retail sales seen softening in February

“We expect UK retail sales to come in at -0.6% m/m in February (mkt: -0.7; prior: 1.8%), undoing some of the gains from the previous two months as idiosyncratic factors lose some of their influence.”

“Adverse weather likely reduced foot traffic in physical stores, also leading to lower sales throughout the month.”

“However, while monthly figures would indicate some mean reversion, consumer momentum should stay positive now that uncertainty related to the November Budget has diminished.”

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