Germany’s 10-year Bund yields fell toward 2.9%, their lowest since March 17, as traders scaled back expectations for further European Central Bank rate hikes amid a continued decline in oil prices, driven by growing expectations of a US-Iran deal this week. Crude has tumbled to fresh three-month lows, though it remains above pre-conflict levels of around $65 per barrel, with oil flows still far from normal. Money markets now price in less than 30 basis points of ECB tightening this year, equivalent to just one rate hike. ECB policymaker Gediminas Šimkus stated on Wednesday that upside risks to inflation still justify further tightening, and he expects at least one more hike to anchor inflation expectations.

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