The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.63% on Monday, reaching its highest level since January 2025 as mounting inflationary pressures tied to the Middle East conflict fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year. In the latest developments, President Donald Trump warned Iran to “get moving” or face consequences after departing China without securing meaningful trade breakthroughs or concrete progress toward ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The latest US CPI and PPI reports released last week indicated that the energy price shock is feeding into broader US inflation, prompting traders to completely rule out any Federal Reserve rate cuts this year while increasing bets on a potential rate hike before year-end. Investors are now focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and flash US PMI data for further signals on the direction of monetary policy and the broader economic outlook.

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